Monday, August 19, 2013

Top Ten Fantasy RBs: Duck Doug Martin at No. 2

This won't happen again.
Owners of Doug Martin have fond memories of his 2012 season.  Opponents are green with envy.  Level headed observers are cautious.  You'll want to avoid taking Martin too early in 2013.  Doug Martin, aka the Muscle Hamster (don't call him that), aka Douggernaut, aka Teach me how to Dougie, aka The 2013 Fantasy Reach. In most formats, Martin is slated to be the second RB off the board.  Martin is not going to have a bad fantasy year, he is just not going to have the second best year among running backs.  It'd be a reach and a half to get him at number two.

Inconsistency you can count on.

My Favorite Martin only scored in seven games last year.  Seven of his twelve touchdowns came against two teams, the mighty mighty Oakland Raiders and the Atlanta Falcons.  He scored four touchdowns in a homecoming game in Oakland and three in two games against Atlanta. In terms of yards per game, he was more consistent, but that's the case for every RB that is listed in the top five.  

Ray Rice is faces the Lions Week 15
Big Games against Small Teams

Dougie-Do-Right had some monstrous games against some cupcake teams.  His game against the Oakland Raiders accounted for 17 percent of his total rushing yards and a 33 percent of all his touchdowns.  This game greatly inflated his season totals.  Tampa is not playing the Raiders this year. and they faced some weak competition as a whole.  Their average opponent ranked 18th against the run. It will be hard for Tampa to find as many cream puffs on their 2013 schedule.  Tampa has road games against the Seahawks and Patriots, both of which were top ten run defenses last year.  Week 15, which is a playoff game in most leagues, pits Mr. Martin against the 49ers.  Food for thought: Arian Foster is running against the Colts Week 15.

There are Four New RBs in Tampa.

Nobody expected LeGarrette Blount to sit and watch the entire 2012 season.  Martin benefited.  Of the 371 Buccaneer handoffs, Martin received 319 (85.98 percent).  This offseason, the Bucs passed the Blount to the Patriots in exchange for Jeff Demps, and went on to acquire Brian Leonard and Peyton Hillis in free agency.  Leonard and Hillis are both proven pass catchers and will be more than likely to steal goal line work from Martin.  The Bucs also drafted Mike James in the sixth round.  Mike James is a bruiser with hands; look for him to make an impact short yardage situations.  New RBs means fewer touches for Martin as Tampa is now home to a stable of capable running backs.

Doug Martin is going to go fast, and will finish as a Top 10 RB.  Take him with the fifth or sixth pick. It's a reach to take him any sooner.  If he's there later than that, you're in a league full of turkeys.  

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