Fantasy Draft Mistakes: It's Not Cuffing Season.

Are you thinking of handcuffing DeMarco Murray this season?

Stop.

That's racist.

And you look paranoid.

Top Ten Fantasy RBs: Duck Doug Martin at No. 2

This won't happen again.

Owners of Doug Martin have fond memories of his 2012 season.  Opponents are green with envy.  Level headed observers are cautious.  You'll want to avoid taking Martin too early in 2013.  Doug Martin, aka the Muscle Hamster (don't call him that), aka Douggernaut, aka Teach me how to Dougie, aka The 2013 Fantasy Reach. In most formats, Martin is slated to be the second RB off the board.  Martin is not going to have a bad fantasy year, he is just not going to have the second best year among running backs.  It'd be a reach and a half to get him at number two.

Inconsistency you can count on.

My Favorite Martin only scored in seven games last year.  Seven of his twelve touchdowns came against two teams, the mighty mighty Oakland Raiders and the Atlanta Falcons.  He scored four touchdowns in a homecoming game in Oakland and three in two games against Atlanta. In terms of yards per game, he was more consistent, but that's the case for every RB that is listed in the top five.  

Ray Rice is faces the Lions Week 15

Big Games against Small Teams

Dougie-Do-Right had some monstrous games against some cupcake teams.  His game against the Oakland Raiders accounted for 17 percent of his total rushing yards and a 33 percent of all his touchdowns.  This game greatly inflated his season totals.  Tampa is not playing the Raiders this year. and they faced some weak competition as a whole.  Their average opponent ranked 18th against the run. It will be hard for Tampa to find as many cream puffs on their 2013 schedule.  Tampa has road games against the Seahawks and Patriots, both of which were top ten run defenses last year.  Week 15, which is a playoff game in most leagues, pits Mr. Martin against the 49ers.  Food for thought: Arian Foster is running against the Colts Week 15.

There are Four New RBs in Tampa.

Nobody expected LeGarrette Blount to sit and watch the entire 2012 season.  Martin benefited.  Of the 371 Buccaneer handoffs, Martin received 319 (85.98 percent).  This offseason, the Bucs passed the Blount to the Patriots in exchange for Jeff Demps, and went on to acquire Brian Leonard and Peyton Hillis in free agency.  Leonard and Hillis are both proven pass catchers and will be more than likely to steal goal line work from Martin.  The Bucs also drafted Mike James in the sixth round.  Mike James is a bruiser with hands; look for him to make an impact short yardage situations.  New RBs means fewer touches for Martin as Tampa is now home to a stable of capable running backs.

RABBLE RABBLE DRAFT ADVICE:
Doug Martin is going to go fast, and will finish as a Top 10 RB.  Take him with the fifth or sixth pick. It's a reach to take him any sooner.  If he's there later than that, you're in a league full of turkeys.  

Hide and Watch: Carson Palmer will be a Top Ten Fantasy QB.

Carson Palmer wants to be your starting quarterback, and you get can him late.  Real late.  Palmer will still be available in the ninth and tenth rounds.  So while everyone is thirsty for quarterbacks like Andrew Luck, or Eli Manning, you'll be able to add another solid WR1. Only nine quarterbacks threw for more yards than Palmer last season (4,018), and none of them had a roster as talent starved as the Oakland Raiders.  Last season, the former Heisman trophy winner posted his highest QB rating (85.3) since 2007. He's got the hot hand.  Land Carson and you won't be disappointed.

Johnathan Cooper

New O-Line

Cardinals QBs were sacked a league-high 58 times last season. That won't be the case in 2012.  With the seventh overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft the Cardinals selected Johnathan Cooper.  The durable All-American left guard from North Carolina should buy Carson more time in the pocket.  The Cards also added fourth-round guard Earl Watford, and  acquired tackle EricWinston from Kansas City.  Mr. Winston hasn't missed a game in his eight-year career.  The Cardinals now have an offensive line.  

Larry F. Fitzgerald

And the F is for Fantasy.  No longer will Larry toss and turn at night longing for the days when Kurt Warner was under center. Don't count out Michael Floyd either.  The thirteenth overall pick from the 2011 Draft from Notre Dame is a 6'2" speedster and should thrive in Bruce Arians' vertical passing attack. Andre Roberts is no slouch either. This man caught five touchdowns last year from the likes of John Skelton and Kevin Kolb.  The Cardinals receivers are leaps and bounds above anyone who lined up in a Raiders jersey last season.  If Floyd becomes the player the Cardinals believe he is, this unit could be the best receiving corps Palmer has ever worked with. 

Bruce Arians

Don't bring me down...Bruce.

You could make the argument that Bruce Arians has more talent in Arizona than he had in Indianapolis.  It shouldn't be hard to replicate his achievements in Arizona. Larry Fitzgerald compares favorably with Reggie Wayne. Andre Roberts and Malcom Floyd have slightly more upside and a lot more size than T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery.  The Cards have a slight edge at the tight end position. Look for Rob Housler to step up in Arizona's new-look offense.  Fun fact: Housler had more catches than Vernon Davis last season, leading the NFC West in tight end receptions.  Bruce is going to put the Cardinals offense back on the map.  Hide and watch.

RABBLE RABBLE DRAFT ADVICE: Carson Palmer is seriously undervalued, so you should get him AFTER that mid-draft run on QBs.

  

Why Andrew Luck is Primed for a Serious Sophomore Slump.

There is a lot of fantasy hype surrounding Andrew Luck this year.  ESPN lists Luck at No.11 for QBs. Fantasy Pros has him at No. 10.  His average draft position is hovering right around 10th.  Don't believe the hype.  In all but the largest leagues, Mr. Luck would make for an excellent QB2 if you can nab him after you've filled out your roster.  Those chances are slim. Popular opinion says your fantasy team could use a little Luck this year and it's likely he'll be drafted as early as the fifth or sixth round.  You don't need Luck that early. There's a lot more value in a proven QB like Ben Roethlisberger or Eli Manning.  Luck is doomed to get hit hard by the sophomore slump. 

Indy's offense is a one trick pony.

Not Calvin Johnson

The Colts are a one-dimensional team, and Andrew Luck is the leader of that dimension.  Last season Andrew Luck benefited from being a rookie.  There was no NFL film for defensive coordinators to study.  Luck's opponents now have 17 games worth of film to sift through to find his weaknesses.  To make matters worse, defensive coordinators only need to watch Andrew Luck when they prepare to stop the Colts.  Nobody is worried about Vick Ballard and his three touchdowns last year.  Nobody should be worried about Ahmad Bradshaw either. He found success in New York because the Giants offense was stacked.  The other Giants' RBs looked good last year too, both David Wilson and Andre Brown averaged at least five yards per carry. Running lanes just seem to open up when a defense has to contend with Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz.  Don't sleep on the depth the Giants have at receiver either.  While the ageless Reggie Wayne is still a bright spot on the Colts offense, defensive coordinators are going to figure this team out.  Luck is overvalued.  

Luck is at his best when he's throwing picks.

The Lions can't stop a nosebleed.

Luck had six 300-yard performances last year.  In four of those six games, he threw two or more interceptions.  In Luck's four touchdown performance against the mighty mighty Detroit Lions, (his only game with more than two passing TDs) he threw three interceptions.   When Luck throws one or fewer interceptions his passing yards-per-game is 260.  When Luck throws multiple interceptions his passing YPG jumps up to 302.  He also averages more TDs in multiple interception games, 1.60 TDs compared to 1.36 TDs.  This kind of production is not sustainable.    

No new friends.

T.Y. Hilton started from the bottom, now he's here.  It's preseason pal.  Relax.  I don't see much about his game developing.  There aren't many things a five-foot-seven receiver can do in the NFL, and I believe T.Y. hit his ceiling last year.  Darrius Heyward-Bey is new, but he's hardly a friend to QBs.  Luck's college pal, Coby Fleener, had a rough go last season and has since suffered a concussion.  More bad news, DHB has never played a full season in his NFL career.  The Colts bolstered their offensive line, but Luck needs more weapons if you want to see his fantasy numbers improve.  

Pep Hamilton is the new offensive coordinator.  You might remember him.  He coordinated the pedestrian Jets' offense from '03-'05 and the equally unimpressive 49ers offense in 2006.  He went on to coach Brian Griese, Rex Grossman and Jay Cutler from 2007 to 2009 as the Bears' quarterbacks coach.  Then he coached Andrew Luck at Stanford.  Does that make you excited?  

RABBLE RABBLE DRAFT PICK:

If you can get Andrew Luck in the ninth round or later, go for it! Otherwise, there are better values at quarterback.